Mittagong / Bowral Area Freeze Level Prediction

The charts on the next page help predict the possability of low level snow in the Southern Higlands.

Plots have been taken from the GFS/AVN model and predicted freeze levels calculated from the corresponding

temperature and height of the 850hpa layer.

This is a guide only as it is only one models prediction of the current upcoming temperature trends.

The Freeze level is represented  in two graphs

These are calculated at extremes of Lapse Rates

Saturated Adibatic Lapse Rate is usually around 6C/KM or 0.6C/100m this usually only occurs within a totally

saturated Atmosphere >95%RH from 1000hpa - 850hpa

Dry Adiabatic Lapse Rate is usually around 10C/KM or 1C/100m and usually ocurs within a very dry atmosphere

The Actual Lapse Rate or Environmental Lapse Rate (ELR) can vary from anything in between

Hence we plot for both extremes of Lapse rate and the actual temp should fall within these two graphs

For example from looking at the stats at some point in time the freeze level may vary between 1100m and 1300m

this means that if the atmosphere is saturated then the freeze level may be closer to 1100m or if the atmosphere is very dry then then the freeze level will be closer to 1300m.